Total US dry gas production ticked up this week, averaging 70.8 Bcf/d, a 0.5 Bcf/d build from the week prior. The recovery was led by the Southeast, where offshore production, some of which had been shut in due to a fire at the Pascagoula Processing Plant, was successfully rerouted via backflows onto an offshore gathering system for re-delivery onto Transco and High Point. US power burn made fresh all-time highs on July 25, hitting 41.57 Bcf/d, 0.5 Bcf/d higher than last week's high. This time the record breaking burn was led by the Southeast, where total burn hit nearly 12.7 Bcf/d, a new all-time high in the region. US exports to Mexico continue to brush up near all-time highs hit last Friday, averaging 3.8 Bcf/d during the week, though Texas flows to Mexico have backed off somewhat while El Paso deliveries from Arizona have increased. Also of note, deliveries to the Sabine Pass liquefaction terminal increased substantially during the week. Feedgas deliveries to Sabine Pass averaged around 1 Bcf/d over the last three days, a 0.3 Bcf/d build over the prior 30 day average. The drastic jump in deliveries indicate that Train 2 has begun initial liquefaction activities. Once fully operational, Train 1 & 2 will have a peak liquefaction capacity of 1.4 Bcf/d and could draw as much as 1.5 Bcf/d under a peak winter demand scenario.
The recent heat wave has seemingly reached its peak, as total demand for the West is forecast to fall by 1.2 Bcf/d Friday-Monday. Demand peaked at 12.12 Bcf/d on Wednesday, which was a summer-to-date high and almost bested the five-year maximum in July of 12.66 Bcf/d, hit on July 1, 2015. Average daily temperatures in Los Angeles have trended above-normal since July 19 at 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit, and are forecast to climb to a peak of 77.5 F on Friday which is 3.9 F above normal. Seattle is also recovering from warm weather, as temperatures reached 73.8 F on Thursday, or 5.8 F above-normal. As both the PNW and CA/SW cool down through this weekend, total demand is expected to average 10.4 Bcf/d next week, which is down by 1.4 Bcf/d from the five-day average. Basis subsequently retreated from notable marks over the past week, as SoCal CG and SoCal Border both reached year-to-date highs of 87 and 67 cents/MMBtu, respectively.
As July nears an end, production concluded with a relatively strong push, averaging 8.1 Bcf/d over the past week. This is the first time all month when production stayed above the 8 Bcf/d mark for all seven days in a week long stretch. Despite the recent strength, July's average has only modestly increased from June, where production averaged 8 Bcf/d. Additionally, it is a significant 620 MMcf/d drop from this time last year. Denver Julesburg production is the only major positive basin year-on-year in the Bentek sample, averaging 184 MMcf/d higher at 1.5 Bcf/d. Green River Overthrust is down 311 MMcf/d at about 2.9 Bcf/d and the Piceance is down 136 MMcf/d at 1.4 Bcf/d. Not only is Rockies production down notably from last year, but it is also down from the start of this year as well, averaging 8.4 Bcf/d from Jan until May.